《大空头》里Michael Burry的投资策略系列（一）

大空头里的Michael Burry是个典型的怪胎，不擅社交，一个眼睛基本瞎了，天天之研究数据，挖公司股票。

但是正是这样的一个怪胎，看到了美国房地产泡沫，并且成为了第一个大举做空美国房地产的人。

Michael Burry管理的基金：Scion，成立于2000年，成立后的前三年，平均跑赢市场61%。自2000年至2008年，Scion基金的总回报率是489.34%（除去管理费用和其他费用）。同期标普500仅仅只上涨了10%，跑赢大盘479.34%。

接下来就为大家介绍Michael Burry 具体的投资策略，希望大家能从中获益。

Strategy

My strategy isn't very complex. I try to buy shares of unpopular companieswhen they look like road kill, and sell them when they've been polished up abit. Management of my portfolio as a whole is just as important to me as stockpicking, and if I can do both well, I know I'll be successful.

策略

我的策略其实并不复杂——在某些公司快要穷途末路的时候买入然后再在他们情况有所改善的时候卖掉。管理投资组合就跟挑选股票一样重要，要是我能兼顾这两样，我知道我肯定会成功。

Weapon of choice:research

My weapon of choice as a stock picker is research; it's critical for me tounderstand a company's value before laying down a dime. I really had no choicein this matter, for when I first happened upon the writings of Benjamin Graham,I felt as if I was born to play the role of value investor. All my stockpicking is 100% based on the concept of a margin of safety, as introduced tothe world in the book "Security Analysis," which Graham co-authoredwith David Dodd. By now I have my own version of their techniques, but the netis that I want to protect my downside to prevent permanent loss of capital.Specific, known catalysts are not necessary. Sheer, outrageous value is enough.

选股的不二法宝：研究

我用来挑选股票的选股的不二法宝就是研究。在要让我投钱之前了解这个公司值多少钱对我来说相当重要。在这件事上我别无选择，因为当我第一次接触到格雷厄姆时我就知道我天生就该是个价值投资者。我所有选股决策百分百都是依据安全边际的概念，就是在格雷厄姆和大卫多德合著的那本《证券分析》中第一次被提出的概念。现在我自己的技巧虽然已经独具一格，但是纯粹就是为了避免永久性的资金损失。要特别强调的一点是，已知的催化剂在分析的时候没啥考虑的必要；透明的，令人吃惊的价值就够了。

I care little about the level of the general market andput few restrictions on potential investments. They can be large-cap stocks,small cap, mid cap, micro cap, tech or non-tech. It doesn't matter. If I canfind value in it, it becomes a candidate for the portfolio. It strikes me asridiculous to put limits on my possibilities. I have found, however, that ingeneral the market delights in throwing babies out with the bathwater. So Ifind out of favor industries a particularly fertile ground for best of breedshares at steep discounts.

我的投资标的没有什么条条框框。他们可以是大盘股，可以是小盘股，可以是大公司，也可以是小公司，可以是科技公司也可以是非科技公司，是什么公司都没关系。如果我能找到这个公司内在的价值，它就成了我投资组合里的候选人。任何要我限制我自己无限可能的想法都是很荒谬的。我发现，市场大盘喜欢良莠不分不管好坏一起扔，因此一些不招人喜欢的产业股份算是以跳楼价出售的能孕育出最优组合的肥沃土地了。

How do I determine the discount? I usually focus on freecash flow and enterprise value (market capitalization less cash plus debt). Iwill screen through large numbers of companies by looking at the enterprisevalue/EBITDA ratio, though the ratio I am willing to accept tends to vary withthe industry and its position in the economic cycle. If a stock passes thisloose screen, I'll then look harder to determine a more specific price andvalue for the company. When I do this I take into account off-balance sheetitems and true free cash flow. I tend to ignore price-earnings ratios. Returnon equity is deceptive and dangerous. I prefer minimal debt, and am careful toadjust book value to a realistic number.

我怎么来计算哪个股票是否便宜呢？我通常关注的是自由现金流和企业价值（市值减去现金再加上负债）。我会通过判断一个公司的EV/EBITDA的比率来筛选股票，尽管这些比率会随产业的不同和其在经济链中的位置而变化。如果一只股票轻松通过筛选，我会更仔细的研究公司具体的数值。当我计算具体数值是，我会考虑资产负债表以外的因素和真实的现金流。我一般不会太看重PE的数值。ROE也是一个具有迷惑性有潜在风险的比率。我更喜欢看最小负债，同时每次将账面价值调整到实际数字的时候我总是很小心。

I also invest in rare birds， asset plays and, to a lesser extent, arbitrageopportunities and companies selling at less than twoJthirds of net value (networking capital less liabilities). I'll happily mix in the types of companiesfavored by Warren Buffett JJ those with a sustainable competitive advantage, asdemonstrated by longstanding and stable high returns on invested capital JJ if theybecome available at good prices. These can include technology companies, if Ican understand them. But again, all of these sorts of investments are rarebirds. When found, they are deserving of longer holding periods.

我也会投资另类的稀缺标的。比如隐蔽资产型投资（Asset plays）,套利机会，以及以不到净值（净流动资金减去负债）三分之二的价钱出售的公司。我很喜欢将沃伦巴菲特看好的一些不同类型的公司（例如那些具有长期竞争优势的和成长起来之后高回报率的公司）纳入我自己的组合，这些公可能会有科技公司（当然前提是我能看懂），但是我再强调一遍，所有的这类型的投资必须是稀缺标的。一旦发掘出来，这些都是值得长期持有的股票。

Beyond stock picking

Successful portfolio management transcends stock picking and requires theanswer to several essential questions: What is the optimum number of stocks tohold? When to buy? When to sell? Should one pay attention to diversificationamong industries and cyclicals vs. nonJcyclicals? How much should one let taximplications affect investment decisionJmaking? Is low turnover a goal? Inlarge part this is a skill and personality issue, so there is no need to makeexcuses if one's choice differs from the general view of what is proper.

选股之外

成功的管理投资组合要比选股更重要，你务必要回答以下几个问题：最佳持股数是几个？什么时候下手买？什么时候出手卖？我们是要关注不同产业中的周期性产业还是非周期性产业呢？我们在多大程度上会让税收影响我们的投资决定呢？低周转率值得投资吗？这些东西在很大程度上是技巧和性格的问题，所以当我们的决策和大多数别人看来正确的选择不一样的时候，我们没必要给自己找借口也用不着跟别人解释。

I like to hold 12 to 18 stocks diversified among various depressed industries,and tend to be fully invested. This number seems to provide enough room for mybest ideas while smoothing out volatility, not that I feel volatility in anyway is related to risk. But you see, I have this heartburn problem and don'tneed the extra stress.

我个人比较喜欢持有各种低迷产业的股票数量是12-18只，而且是满仓操作。这个数字

应该可以在我们维稳大变数的时候提供足够的浮动空间，并不是说我感觉变数一大就一定有风险。你看，这个时候我既保持了适当的焦虑也不会给自己太大压力。

Tax implications are not a primary concern of mine. I know my portfolioturnover will generally exceed 50% annually, and way back at 20% the longJtermtax benefits of lowJturnover pretty much disappear. Whether I'm at 50% or 100%or 200% matters little. So I am not afraid to sell when a stock has a quick 40%to 50% a pop.

对我来说交税并不是我关心的首要问题。我清楚地知道我的投资组合年周转率是超过50%的，但是一旦长期税收从低周转率中获利达20%，这部分也差不多算抵消了。不管年周转率是50%还是100%还是200%都没差。所以当一个股票从40 %跳到50%的时候我会考虑把他卖掉的。

As for when to buy, I mix some barebones technical analysis into mystrategy a tool held over from my days as a commodities trader. Nothing fancy.But I prefer to buy within 10% to 15% of a 52 week low that has shown it selfto offer some price support. That's the contrarian part of me. And if a stock  other than the rare birds discussed abovebreaks to a new low, in most cases I cut the loss. That's the practical part. Ibalance the fact that I am fundamentally turning my back on potentially greatervalue with the fact that since implementing this rule I haven't had a singlemisfortune blow up my entire portfolio.

至于什么时候买，我本人是将技术分析法和我自己的策略相结合——一个多年交易者总结出来的工具，也不是什么特别神奇的东西。我一般习惯在股价位于52周新低上下10%到15%的区间购买，关键是我希望我的买入点有足够强的价格支撑。这是我跟其他人比较不一样的地方。如果一只股票——除了我们上面讨论的稀缺标的——创了新低，大多数情况下我会选择止损。这是我比较务实的地方。通过上面的策略，我做到了避免自己对那些潜在的能创造更大价值的机会置之不理，同时通过实行这个策略我从来没有遭受过严重到影响我整个投资组合的损失。

I do not view fundamental analysis as infallible. Rather, I see it as away of putting the odds on my side. I am a firm believer that it is a dog eatdog world out there. And while I do not acknowledge market efficiency, I do notbelieve the market is perfectly inefficient either. Insiders leak information.Analysts distribute illegal tidbits to a select few. And the stock price cansometimes reflect the latest information before I, as a fundamental analyst,catch on. I might even make an error. Hey, I admit it. But I don't let it killmy returns. I'm just not that stubborn.

我觉得基础分析不可能是天衣无缝的。我反而认为这个方法本质上是让赔率对自己有利。我坚信股票市场就是狗咬狗的竞争。我是不尽信市场效率这一说的，但我也不信市场是毫无效率的。总有内部人会泄露消息出来。分析师会给某些人尝点甜头，因此股价也会在像我这样的分析师嗅到之前就反应出来了。就算是我也会犯错，我承认的。但是我是不会让我的利润因此严重受损，我可没那么顽固。

In the end, investing is neither science nor art JJ it is a scientificart. Over time, the road of empiric discovery toward interesting stock ideaswill lead to rewards and profits that go beyond mere money. I hope some of youwill find resonance with my work JJ and maybe make a few bucks from it.

最后，投资既不是科学也不是艺术——它是具有科学性的艺术。随着时间的推移，股票研究的经验主义道路给我们带来的回报将不仅仅是金钱。我希望我的读者们可以和我的工作产生共鸣——没准你能从中小赚一笔呢。