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謝威廉 （萬利集團主席兼行政總裁）
William Chia, Chairman and CEO, Banle Group
新的排放法規下採用替代燃料
全球海運業面臨嚴峻的減排目標。根據歐盟頒布的FuelEUMaritime法規，於歐洲航行的船舶必須在少於6個月內降低全球碳排放，他們所採取的行動可能會對全球海運成本產生重大影響。
轉用替代燃料是貨運公司降低排放最快的手段之一，但並非一蹴而就的。液化天然氣 （LNG）、液化石油氣 （LPG）、氫 （Hydrogen）、氨 （Ammonia）、綠色甲醇 （Methanol） 和生物燃料 （Biofuels） 都是貨運託運人可以選擇的替代燃料產品。 有些替代燃料與現行的船舶引擎不相容，另外有些則需巨額投資。
哪些替代燃料發展勢頭較為佔優？
答案可為整個全球能源供應提供洞悉，並暗示替代燃料價格在下半年的走向及對通貨膨脹的影響。
萬利集團是亞洲其中一間最大的船舶燃油供應商，一直致力於為貨船及集裝箱船船東客戶提供一站式船舶燃油供應服務。集團的業務覆蓋超過55個港口，主要遍布比利時、中國、香港、日本、韓國、馬來西亞、毛里求斯、新加坡、臺灣、泰國、土耳其和越南。
作為萬利集團的主席兼行政總裁，我見證了海運和船舶燃料油加注業界在過去二十年從傳統燃料油轉型向綠色船用燃料的過程。可想而知，焦慮的航運公司和船東們正經歷著變幻莫測的轉型。
最先採用的替代燃料
最新數據顯示，甲醇和液化天然氣是海運公司最傾向採用的前兩大替代燃料。 DNV的Alternative Fuels Insight 資料庫的數據說明，在過去12個月內新簽訂的新造船合同（不包括液化天然氣運輸船） 顯示，替代燃料已經佔據了全球燃料市場的21%，其中甲醇佔10%，液化天然氣佔7%。
儘管作為零碳燃料，氫氣有很大潛力和前景，但到目前為止還沒有在替代燃料領域得到任何應用。
船東還未知道哪種替代燃料將成為實際的王者，但這並不阻止他們在綠色動力船舶投入大量投資。
根據DNV的數據，目前運營中的船舶中，不到1% （準確來說是0.69%） 配備合適替代燃料的船舶引擎。 但是這種情況即將改變。
截至2024年6月在建船舶將有16%配備有處理替代燃料的引擎。在替代燃料競爭中，液化天然氣以9.3%的市場份額領先，其次是甲醇，佔備有替代燃料能力船舶的4.2%。美國船級社 （The American Bureauof Shipping （ABS） 也證實了甲醇和氨在替代燃料中嶄露頭角和日漸流行，並預計到2050年這兩種替代燃料的使用率分別增至42% 和33%。
今年年中，人們都聚焦在馬士基，因馬士基成功為世界上第一艘大型甲醇動力集裝箱船加注了綠色甲醇燃料。這次加注在比利時安特衛普港進行，共加注了4,300噸綠色甲醇和1,375噸生物柴油。 陽明海運也因在香港、中國、新加坡和韓國採用可持續生物燃料為其船隊加注而受到關注。其他主要航運公司，如中遠海運集團，也將生物燃料納入營運中。
面對不斷變化的綠色轉型，船東可能會因應技術和市場情況的變化而不斷調整計劃，並在不同的替代燃料之間轉換。據 Lloyd's List （勞埃德名單） 報導，馬士基最近也開始轉向使用液化天然氣作為其他船舶的燃料，可能是由於綠色甲醇的生產速度低於預期。
使用替代燃料下的未來航運成本
理所當然，每個人都想知道這些新的航運目標將如何影響全球貨物運輸的成本。我們能否預期綠色轉型會導致燃料價格上漲，從而轉嫁給消費者？ 還是轉向使用替代燃料會帶來額外的成本節約？
國際海事組織 （InternationalMaritime Organization （IMO） 將於年終就碳定價政策 （Carbon Pricing） 作出決定，這將影響全球航運業。預計最終的定價政策將於2025年9月或10月達成共識，並於其後兩年內落實執行。
同時，歐盟 （European Union （EU） 排放交易系統（Emission TradingSystem （ETS） 也將影響未來價格，而國際海事組織正在為海運業敲定其碳定價模式。 目前尚未確立任何固定價格，一些國際海事組織成員國建議採用每噸150美元的全球征費。最終價格將取決於接下來的談判，價格可能會在未來幾個月內敲定。 最終，這兩個組織也將影響替代燃料在年終的價格。
The global shipping industry is under a tight deadline. It now has less than 6-months to lower their global climate footprint under the new targets imposed by FuelEU Maritime, and their actions could have a drastic impact on shipping costs across the globe.
Switching to alternative fuels is one of the fastest ways for cargo shippers to lower their emissions but it’s not as easy as flipping a switch. LNG, LPG, hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and biofuels are among the many options cargo shippers can use. Some alternative fuel options aren’t compatible with engines, while others require heavy investments.
Which Alternative Fuels Making Most Headwinds?
The answer provides insight for the entire global energy supply. It can also suggest where alternative fuel prices might be headed in the second half of the year and its impact on inflation.
Banle Group is one of the largest marine fuel logistics companies in Asia Pacific, providing container liners and cargo ships with one-stop bunkering in the world’s largest shipping routes. Banle Group’s business activities are primarily focused in over 55 major ports covering Belgium, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mauritius, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam.
As Chairman and CEO of Banle Group, I’ve watched the marine cargo shipping and bunkering industry transitioning from conventional fuel to green marine fuel over the last two decades. You can imagine the anxiety shippers and ship owners are experiencing with this uncertain future.
Fastest Adopting Alternative Fuels
The latest data shows Methanol and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) are the top two alternative fuels that shippers are leaning towards. According to DNV’s AFI numbers, new contracts by number of ships (excluding LNG carriers) over the last 12 months show alternative fuels are now 21% of the global fuel market with Methanol at 10% of the share and LNG at 7%.
Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) was at 2% and Ammonia was at the bottom with 1% of the share. Hydrogen has not shown any adoption among alternative fuels, despite its potential and promise as a zero carbon fuel.
Ship owners might not know which alternative fuel will become the de facto leader, but that isn’t stopping them from making big investments in alternative fuel engines.
Currently, less than 1 percent of ships in operation (or .69% to be exact) are equipped for alternative fuel, according to DNV. But that’s about to change.
Data from DNV shows nearly 16% of all ships on order in June 2024 will be equipped with engines to handle alternative fuels. LNG leads the alternative fuel competition with 9.3% of market share, followed by Methanol at 4.2% of the share of ships with alternative fuel capabilities. The American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) echoed the emergence and growth of methanol and ammonia as alternative fuels, and the anticipated growth in the use of the two fuels is expected to increase to 42% and 33% by 2050 respectively.
Many eyes were on Maersk earlier this year after it successfully refueled the world’s first large-scale methanol-power container ship with green methanol fuel. The completed bunkering finished with 4,300 tons of green methanol and 1,375 tons of biodiesel at the Port of Antwerp. Yang Ming Marine is also gaining attention for its upcoming adoption of sustainable biofuels across its fleet in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and South Korea. Other major shipping companies, such as COSCO Shipping Group, have also joined the effort to incorporate biofuels into their operations.
Faced with an ever-changing landscape of green marine fuel options, shipowners may keep switching up their plans, hopping between different alternative fuels as the technologies and market conditions continue to shift. Maersk has also been switching to LNG on other vessels recently, likely due to the slower-than-expected production of green methanol, as reported by Lloyd’s List.
Future Shipping Costs with Alternative Fuels
Of course, everyone wants to know how these new shipping targets will impact the cost of future goods shipped around the globe. Can we expect the shift to lead to higher fuel prices passed onto the customer? Or will the shift to alternative fuels ignite additional cost savings?
The IMO will decide on a carbon pricing policy later this year and it will affect the global shipping industry. The final pricing policy is expected to be agreed upon in September or October of 2025, and become enforceable two years later.
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) will also influence future prices, while the IMO is finalizing its carbon pricing model for the shipping industry. No fixed prices have been established yet, and some IMO member States suggest a global levy starting at US$150 per ton. The final price will depend on ongoing negotiations with the final price likely coming over the next few months. Ultimately, these two groups will also play a role later this year on the future prices of alternative fuels.
