BYDE(285.HK)1H24E PREVIEW：EXPECT SOLID GROWTH ON IPAD/IPHONE CYCLE ANDROID RECOVERY AND NEV ORDERS-格隆汇

机构：招银国际
研究员：Alex NG/Hanqing LI

　　BYDE will report 1H24 results in Aug. We estimate 1H24 revenue/NP growth of 32%/26% driven by iPad share gains, Android recovery, Jabil biz consolidation, stable NEV components sales and new intelligent product business. For 2H24E/2025E, we are positive on iPad/iPhone upgrade cycle, Android high-end orders, automotive orders and AI servers to drive revenue growth. We cut FY24-26E EPS by 6% to mainly factor in a weaker GPM. Our FY24-26E EPS estimates are 1- 9% above consensus. The stock now trades at 12.7x/9.3x FY24/25E P/E, which is attractive in our view. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$45.28 implies 18.3x FY24E P/E. Maintain BUY.
　　Consumer electronics: iPad share gains, iPhone cycle and Android high- end orders. We estimate smartphone OEM/component business revenue to increase 39%/36% YoY in 1H/2H24E mainly driven by iPad share gains, iPhone cycle, Android high-end growth and Jabil consolidation. For Jabil biz, we estimate FY24E revenue of RMB19.4bn thanks to iPhone shipment cycle, casing upgrade and share gains. For iPad, we estimate 53%/28% YoY growth in 1H/2H24E, backed by share gains to 50% in FY24E (vs 38% in FY23). As for GPM, we expect Assembly GPM to improve slightly to 2.5%/2.6% in 1H/2H24E thanks to higher utilization in Android/Apple business, and component GPM to come in at 14.3%/14.7% in 1H/2H24E mainly dragged by Jabil consolidation.
　　Automotive: expect 38% YoY revenue growth in FY24E driven by strong Parentco shipment and new high-end product ramp-up. We expect automotive revenue growth of 38% YoY due to Parentco shipment/ASP growth of 20%/5% YoY. In addition, we are positive on external auto customers growth driven by new project wins. As for NEV product pipeline, we believe heat pump system, high-end ADAS system products and active suspension products will boost ASP in FY24/25E given BYDE’s R&D efforts and high-end order expansion.
　　New intelligent products: AI server biz to offset household energy storage weakness. We expect AI server ODM products to contribute RMB1bn of revenue in FY24E thanks to Chinese CSP client demand, offsetting household energy storage segment weakness. Overall, we expect flattish YoY revenue growth for new intelligent product segment. In addition, we become more positive on AI server biz to deliver rapid growth in FY25-26E given next-gen AI server products and components in development with Nvidia.
　　Good buying opportunity on recent correction; Reiterate BUY. Overall, we lower FY24-26E EPS by 6% to factor in weaker GPM and higher OPEX. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$45.28 implies 18.3x FY24E P/E. Maintain BUY. Near-term catalysts include iPhone/iPad shipment and NEV/AI server products.