WB-SW(09898.HK)：1Q2022 RESULTS BEAT EXPECTATION-格隆汇

机构：国泰君安国际
研究员：Vincent Liu

　　Weibo's non-GAAP shareholders’ net profit in 1Q2022 increased yoy by 1.7% to US$133 million, higher than market expectation. Revenue from advertising and marketing amounted to US$427 million, up 9.5% yoy, mainly due to resilient advertising performance. Revenue from value-added services decreased yoy by 16.5% to US$58 million due to decline in membership and live streaming services. Mainly due to investment loss from fair value change and impairment, Weibo suffered GAAP shareholders’ net loss of US$68 million
　　On the user side, Weibo’s MAU in March 2022 was 582 million, up 9.8% yoy and 1.6% qoq. Average DAU was 252 million, up 9.6% yoy and 1.2% qoq. Ratio of DAU to MAU decreased slightly by 0.1 ppt yoy and 0.2 ppt qoq to 43.3%.
　　We expect Weibo’s revenue in 2022-2024 to be US$2,168 million, US$2,377 million, and US$2,471 million, respectively, representing yoy growth of -3.9%, 9.6% and 4.0%. For advertising and marketing, resurgence of COVID-19 cases slowed down recovery in 2022. For value-added services, we expect yoy decline in 2022.
　　We maintain our investment rating as "Accumulate" but revise down our target price to HK$243.00. We expect Weibo’s non-GAAP shareholders’ net profit in 2022-2024 to increase by -11.8%, 11.5% and 8.5% to US$634 million, US$707 million and US$766 million, respectively, and expect decline in margins. Our target price represents 11.5x, 10.2x and 9.4x 2022-2024 non-GAAP PER, respectively.