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机构：招商证券(香港)
研究员：Hayden Zhang/Warren Dai
Innovent reported 3Q21 sales of Tyvyt hit an all-time high of ~RMB800mn (USD125.6mn per Eli Lilly, equivalent to about RMB813mn based on 3Q21 avg. RMB/USD 6.47). The new high represented Tyvyt has resumed solid growth after two consecutive quarters of flat sales (~RMB700mn/700mn in 1Q21/2Q21 due to PAP programs). We expect the growth momentum of Tyvyt to sustain in subsequent quarters, supported by: 1) its broader approved indications across major cancer types than peers’ drugs, allowing Co. to uniquely access certain untapped patient groups such as 1L HCC and 1L GC; 2) rapidly scaling commercial team (up to ~3k ppl in the near future from ~2k ppl in 1H21) to help achieve faster uptake; 3) looming NRDL negotiation provides opportunities for Tyvyt to regain its edge in the NRDL label contest. In addition, we reckon price cut risk from NRDL negotiation is manageable as it’s not logical for its major peers to severely cut price only for their certain small indications (i.e. 3L NPC).
More novel assets with re-rate catalysts in 21E/22E
IBI-348 (BCR-ABL/KIT), NDA approvals for 2L CML by YE21E; IBI-376 (PI3Kδ), NDA filing for r/r/ FL; IBI-326 (BCMA CAR-T), NDA filing for r/r/ MM; IBI-188 (αCD-47), Ph1b data readout for 1L MDS/AML in China; IBI-344 (αROS1/NTRK), PoC data readout for NSCLC. Meanwhile, Co. has internally added ~80 potential FIC/BIC preclinical projects to support pipeline strength, aiming for 6 INDs/yr from 23E/24E onwards. Further, Co. is scaling BD teams across three regions (U.S., EU and China & Asia Pacific) to maximize BD opportunities.
Remain our top-pick with SOTP-based TP at HKD131
We maintained SOTP-based TP at HKD131. We believe Innovent offers decent growth opportunities based on its enhanced platform ability. We think today’s selloff is due to market overreaction to looming NRDL negotiation, which is manageable in our view. In addition, Co. remains on track to advance R&D projects, and scales up business at speed. We think current price provides a reasonably good buying opportunity for long term investors.