机构:招银国际
研究员:Wayne FUNG
Key highlights on 1H24 results. Revenue dropped 21% YoY to A$3.1bn, as the 17% YoY coal sales volume growth (to 16.9mt) was more than offset by the 37% YoY decline in blended coal ASP (to A$176/t). EBIT declined 58% to A$587mn due to operating de-leveraging. Net profit dropped 57% YoY to A$420mn. Operating cash inflow was A$851mn, higher than the net profit. As at end-Jun 2024, YAL had net cash of A$1.42bn.
Unit cost reduction still underway. The unit cash operating cost (excluding royalties) in 1H24 was A$101/t, -7% YoY but +17% HoH. Despite our higher unit cost assumptions, we still expect YAL to achieve ~7% YoY unit cash cost reduction in 2H24E.
2024E full-year guidance unchanged: (1) attributable saleable production: 35-39mn tonnes (up 5%-17% YoY); (2) operating cash cost (excluding royalties): A$89-97/t (-7% to +1% YoY); (3) capex: A$650-800mn (up 5%-29% YoY).
Key risks: (1) further decline in coal price; (2) rebound of unit cost; (3) extreme weather that affects production.