SAMSONITE(1910.HK)：WEAK FY24 DRAGGED BY TUMI AND AMERICAN TOURISTER 1Q25 SALES TO DECLINE LSD-MSD-格隆汇

机构：招银国际
研究员：Miao ZHANG/Bella LI

Samsonite delivered mixed performance in FY24 with in-line revenue, yet NP missed CMBI estimate by 8%. Overall net sales (organic) were flat in both FY24 and 4Q24 (-0.2%/+1% YoY) at US$ 3.6bn on a high base in 2023 revenge travel theme. Major markets Asia and North America retreated 3.6%/1.2% YoY, but were offset by Europe & Latin America markets that grew 3.1%/17.0% YoY. Net profit was down 13% YoY to US$ 346mn mainly due to 1) higher selling expense ratio from revenue shrink and new store opening (+67 in FY24), and 2) fewer impairment reversals in FY23. Despite sequential improvement materializing since 3Q24, management guided 1Q25 sales to fall by LSD to MSD with recovery in Asia, but weak US consumer sentiment will likely persist. Due to normalization of travel frequency and uncertainty in the recovery pace of the premium retail sector, we expect organic sales/net profit to grow 1.5%/1.8% YoY in FY25E, but ongoing share buyback and progress of dual-listing may provide some support on share price. We maintain BUY with TP revised down by 9% to HK$ 25.35 given lower earnings estimate. The TP implies a 13x FY25E P/E.
Growth from Samsonite was offset by decline in TUMI and American Tourister. The Samsonite brand achieved 3.3% organic sales growth in FY24, with a 4.6% YoY rise in 4Q24, due to strong holiday season and shifts in the US wholesaler order timing. TUMI performed weaker in the full year with organic sales down 0.8% YoY, but 4Q24 was strong, showing notable growth in Europe (+12 % YoY), Latin America (+17% YoY) and North America (+5% YoY). Asia was a drag and booked -0.2% YoY. American Tourister struggled due to weak North American wholesaler demand and intense competition in the Indian market, resulting in a 6.1% organic YoY decline (excl. India was 1.9%).
2M25 stagnant online sales in China. In 2M25, Samsonite saw varied sales performance across platforms. Sales on TBTM and JD witnessed -7% and -18% YoY, respectively. In contrast, sales on Douyin surged by 200% YoY, bolstered by strategic marketing investments. TUMI, now targeting both business and lifestyle segments, had mixed results with -11% on TMTB and a steady 26% rise YoY on JD. Despite these fluctuations, we expect the brand value to gradually strengthen as it refines its digital marketing and localizations campaigns.
Valuation. Due to normalization of travel frequency and uncertainty in the recovery pace of the premium retail sector, we expect organic sales/net profit to grow 1.5%/1.8% YoY in FY25E, but ongoing share buyback and progress of dual-listing may provide some support on share price. We maintain BUY with TP revised down by 9% to HK$ 25.35 given lower earnings estimates. Our DCF- based TP (WACC:8.6%, terminal growth:2.0%) represents 13.4x 2025E P/E.